Saturday, January 4, 2014

People tend to think time is a linear sequence of cause and effect. In reality, it is more of a wibbly-wobbly timey-wimey... stuff.

Karma. The way things are supposed to be.

It is difficult to make an argument against predeterminism. Anyone who has taken a slightly unhealthy interest in physics knows that with enough data, any outcome can be predicted. With large objects it is fairly obvious, an apple will fall towards the Earth if it is let go, a window washer will fall down if the ladder tumbles. Most chemical processes can be predicted using the laws of thermodynamics.

But most of life is not just falling apples and dead window washers. A great deal of life is social interaction. Giving people something to react to and anticipating those reactions. Getting something to react to and reacting according to your own beliefs. Sharing information in verbal, visual or indeed any form, and reacting to it. Receiving sense data and changing it. But predicting human behavior is a tricky thing - people are different and many will do things that surprise you. Inevitably you will always have less data to predict people's behavior on that people have to react to. Still, a human mind is a simple one. With great power, no doubt, but essentially simple. It hates change.

Psychoanalysists are people whose job it is to analyze and predict human behavior with limited information. Generally they do quite a good job. Many con artists and magicians specialize in cold reading - deriving personal information by fishing for it and closely observing how people look, how they act. It is so effective many people confuse it with clairvoyancy. Even so, sometimes just a few actions can reveal a lot about a person. How they think, how they move. How they would react to a little piece of information. How easy would it be to manipulate them.

What these people do confirms that people are not snowflakes. Being unique is extremely relative - people go where the wind carries them. Rarely do people get to where they want to go, but instead end up where they need to be. That is a connecting line no matter the culture, no matter the race, no matter the upbringing. This is not to say all people are exactly the same, that would be folly! But people are quite similar in their motivations, in their reactions. There are a few types that cover pretty much everyone. Stereotypes, if you prefer. Very often these types can be confirmed with two little questions: 'Who are you?' and 'What do you want?'. The answers, however philosophical they are in nature, reveal plenty about the person. Who they see themselves as, where they are going, why do they do the things they do, what are they striving towards. Once you know that, you can predict their future behavior. Once you also get information about their past, you can predict the success of their future behavior.

Naturally nobody can know everything about an another person, which rules out absolute predictions. But with the information that can be gleamed, you can get pretty close. After all, we all remember how Target knows people are pregnant before they tell anyone.

With the ability to accurately predict the future we step on predeterminism. Not because we know what is 'supposed' to be, but because we can change it. While it is possible that we are 'supposed' to change the 'supposed'-to-be future, but at one point it all breaks down. Once we know enough, we'll be able to predict our own actions, which would therefore have to be locked in place. Fixed points in time. And yet if we know they are coming, what would stop us from changing the way that they are supposed to be?

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