Saturday, July 14, 2012

A surprisingly violent topic.

If one country were to want the demise of an another country, say someone wanted to strike down USA, how would this be orchestrated?

Well, a direct assault without proper propaganda could cause a large-scale counter-attack which could prove to be quite impossible to beat. Hence an indirect method has to be concocted. Espionage and sabotage are both great options, Sun Tzu has even given quite good instructions on how to use spies in terms of espionage:

“9. Having local spies means employing the services of the inhabitants of a district.

10. Having inward spies, making use of officials of the enemy.

11. Having converted spies, getting hold of the enemy's spies and using them for our own purposes.

12. Having doomed spies, doing certain things openly for purposes of deception, and allowing our spies to know of them and report them to the enemy.

13. Surviving spies, finally, are those who bring back news from the enemy's camp.” – Art of War

But spies can only do so much, they are most definitely of great use as catalysts. They speed up the process but they are generally unable to bring a country down on its knees on their own, they need help. Since direct confrontation is not an option, what is?

Biological warfare would do the job – eliminates the people while keeping the wealth intact. But even in such a case the land can’t be easily occupied without outside intervention. Perhaps capturing the land is out of the question, then the devastation of the country is the aim. This eliminates competition or serves as a preemptive strike against a potential foe. Surely there are other reasons as well for somebody to want a country to lose its standing in global politics or its long-maintained stability.

The nuclear option.

Now, you may wonder how come a direct military incursion is out of the question but a nuke is not. The trick in this matter is that the nuke isn’t aimed at the country but rather at its infrastructure. The explosion has to take place up high so that the only thing that reaches the underlying civilization is an EMP wave. This way the people are affected indirectly – instead of attacking the people, the electronics goes offline. As most of us rely on our electronic devices, chaos would ensue with no doubt. If you don’t believe that the lack of electronics would create civil unrest and panic then just think what we couldn’t do without electronics. No registers at shops means manual calculation, a skill many have forgotten, no credit or debit cards means all you have to pay for anything with is the cash you have at hand, with little or no cash your options become scarce. No security systems means a huge crime wave as there are no security cameras. No cell towers or phones means you can’t call for help if you are hurt, there’s a fire or you witness a crime. There is no reason beyond morality to stop the crimes and the chaos and morality sells for very little for a person in a panic.

Another thing you might wonder is that other nations will note who detonated that nuke and might retaliate. Even if you could convince them that the detonation was the doing of a small terrorist group your country could still be invaded by foreign troops as Afghanistan and Al Qaeda proved. But this chance is a lot lower as the nuke did not directly harm any human being. It merely destroyed the people’s common environment. The nuke is less likely to be intercepted because it is targeted at outer space, not a country. Sure, it is a risk but a small one. Especially if you have yet another nuke in your possession or an ally who has one.

This strategy naturally does not work in the case of small target countries but it is not supposed to – who would want to devastate a tiny nation without military incursion? Larger countries on the other hand are, well, large enough to be targeted successfully. This makes it a very handy tactic for smaller countries and nations to defend their position against bullies. The main problem with it lies in the economic standpoint – a lot of international corporations rely on large countries as do many states. If a giant, such as the United States, were to suddenly bankrupt, the economic aftershock could drag quite a few states down with it. So step one would be economic independence which is quite difficult to achieve in this day and age.

Therefore the nuclear option serves the aim of devastating an enemy better when it is used from great altitude. The EMP wave caused reaches over entire continents at heights great enough but the explosion does not. At ground level the nuke is surprisingly useless – it might take out only a city or two. An EMP on the other hand can throw the entire country all the way back to dark middle ages. Sure, the inhabitants of the country might be displeased with your actions but with hardly any means of transportation – modern cars also rely on electronics – there’s hardly anything they can do against you. And the government will be quite distracted by internal chaos so unless there already is a direct confrontation they probably won’t resort to war.

Humanitarian aid can help rebuild the victim state but the blast will leave quite a mark on the country’s position on the global scale. And that is the aim of the strike – to cripple the state. Not to wipe it off the map but to maim it.

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